PanVadere
Modeling and simulation of local infection spread in moving crowds
In PanVadere, Prof. Köster's research group is designing a model to capture local infection spread in crowds. A simulation tool will be implemented that enables computer-based, quantitative experiments. The software will be free and open source and will meet the highest quality standards of software engineering. Researchers will be able to generate simulation data for scenarios where measurements are not available or incomplete.
The model will combine local movement, transmission via aerosols and a dose-response model. Findings on virus aerosols and on the kinetics of breathing, coughing, and sneezing will be incorporated. Influential and less influential parameters in the model will be identified and ranked according to importance. For a number of everyday scenarios, the observables "degree of exposure" of virtual persons and the "number of infected persons" shall be quantified.
The results are to be visualized in a generally understandable way. The model will be validated against publicly available COVID-19 data. PanVadere will replicate at least two currently known super-spreading events and verify that actual observations are within the range of likely outcomes determined by forward propagation.
